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Western Investors Set to Return to India, EMEs as Expert Predicts 'Multiple Recessions' in US, EU_我的网站
A | Colombo, Oct 20 (UNI) The prevailing economic crisis could deal a severe blow to many Sri Lankan business sectors if it deepens or drags for a prolonged period, Fitch Ratings said in remarks published on Thursday.
This is because runaway inflation, elevated interest rates and import restrictions have already pressured their revenues, margins, profits and cash flows, the Daily Mirror quoted Fitch Ratings as saying.
In a brief commentary on the implications the economic crisis would have on Sri Lanka’s listed companies, the rating agency identified consumer goods retail, power generation and home building among the most affected sectors from a prolonged crisis.
While some businesses did not feel the full effects of the crisis as they managed to grow their top and bottom lines and their margins in the second quarter ended in June 2022, Fitch said they would not be able to replicate the same results in the coming quarters as price hikes could come at the cost of further decline in revenues.
The September earnings season, which kicked off this week, would provide analysts and investors the opportunity to assess how these companies representing wider industries have fared on the back of continued rise in costs across the supply chains as well as of their borrowings, it said.
The Sri Lankan economy is projected to be in continuous decline in 2022 and 2023, shedding 9.2 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively, according to the World Bank estimates.
“Significant cost inflation affecting demand and profitability, import restrictions disrupting operations and high interest rates are key risks faced by domestic corporations in the next 12-18 months,” Fitch Ratings said.
If these conditions persist in the said time horizon, worsening the economic conditions, Fitch estimates around 50 per cent of its rated issuers to see rating pressure.
UNI MR。
B | India and emerging market economies (EMEs) will gain “substantially,” reckoned experts, as Japan-based Nomura Holdings predicts “multiple recessions” for the world’s major economies over the next 12 months.,Nomura Holdings on Monday noted that the US, Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will fall into recession amid tightening government policies and rising living costs.,“A recession in developed countries can result in heightened interest of Foreign Portfolio Investors towards emerging markets, including India, which is the fastest-growing major economy in the world”, Pranav Haldea, managing director of Prime Database, told Sputnik.,Haldea blames the US Fed rate hike aimed at controlling the rising living costs for the current capital outflow from emerging markets, saying interest rates in the US have a huge bearing on FPI flows.,Foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth $6.4 billion in June — the highest net outflow in over two years. Foreign investors withdrew $27.9 billion from Indian equities in the first six months of 2022.,“Once the current rate hike cycle shows signs of abating, FPIs shall again look at emerging markets with renewed interest”, Haldea reckoned.,Economists observe Fed missteps such as the delayed response to inflation, which the latter labeled “transitory” until March this year, hamper economic activity in the US. The US recorded 8.6 percent inflation in May, the highest in four decades.,Massive inflationary pressure is also hindering growth in European economies such as Germany, Spain, and France, which registered 7.6, 10, and 5.2 percent price rises in May, respectively. Inflation in the UK is running at 9.1 percent.,US Unlikely to Avoid Severe Recession if Fed Hikes Interest Rates Too Quickly to Cool Inflation2 July, 02:42 GMT,Economists warn of spreading high inflation beyond commodities to services items, rentals, and wages.,Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying wrote in a research note that there are increasing signs that the world economy is entering a “synchronized growth slowdown, meaning countries can no longer rely on a rebound in exports for growth”.,Professor Manoj Pant, a prominent economist and vice chancellor at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, said that emerging markets would also be affected by a decline in trade; still, some factors may lessen the impact.,“The factors which are operating in our favor are that the bulk of the buying consumers are located in India, and the current geopolitical situation means a lot of countries are looking at India not as a complete replacement, but as a possible third area apart from China and Vietnam”, Pant told Sputnik.,Nomura forecasts a prolonged recession in the United States and a much deeper slump in Europe if Russia entirely cuts off gas to the region.,Despite the global headwinds, the Indian economy is predicted to grow at 7.2 percent in the current fiscal, much higher than any other major global economy.,Experts advise Indian policymakers to capitalize on the structural changes that began in 2016-17 onwards but that were interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.,“The world is moving much more towards services than manufacturing. China’s boom was based on manufacturing, the services boom will have to be in India. So the question is how well we are able to take account of that. So depending on us, we can actually gain substantially, if we are ready”, Pant added.,However, Pant labeled the new forecast as a continuation of the 2019 recessions, as there has been no boom registered anywhere in the world since then.,China infuses immense hopes to all the developing economies, as economists bet on demand from the world's second-largest economy to mitigate negative impacts, even though they face slowing export demand from the US and Europe.。
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